TERRY MURDEN says the First Minister-in-waiting could be shot down if he overplays his party’s core policy
Douglas Ross has been crowing about forcing Humza Yousaf out of office, claiming it showed the power of the Scottish Conservatives as the official opposition at Holyrood. It could, however, turn out to be a pyrrhic victory. Mr Ross may have forced the bad guy out of town, but the SNP has rallied behind an old gunslinger who is promising to restore order.
John Swinney has put unity at the core of his campaign for leadership of the SNP. He has been described as the ‘continuity continuity’ candidate by opponents who say he represents a seamless transition from Nicola Sturgeon and Mr Yousaf.
It is certainly true that, assuming he sees off any late challenge for the job, he will arrive at Bute House with lots of baggage from previous ministerial posts and being the architect of much that has gone wrong for the SNP during its 17 years in government.
Mr Swinney is re-packaging his record as “experience” that will serve him well in knowing not only where the bodies are buried, but what works and what doesn’t. His first Cabinet will reveal who he believes will deliver and who won’t. “We need all the talents available to us,” he declared in his leadership launch speech on Thursday. He wants to end the divisiveness that has riven the party by drawing together all its expressions in parliament, councils and at grassroots.
He will need to move quickly. He says he intends to win back support in the general election and the 2026 Scottish Election and serve for a full term after that. As such he wants to establish a Swinney legacy. So what will that look like and, more to the point, what can we expect in the next week?
We will see the foundation stones laid in building the New SNP when Mr Swinney announces his first Cabinet. He has promised a significant role for Kate Forbes, who was likely to be his only rival for the top job. Reinstating her as Finance Secretary to replace Shona Robison may be too brutal even in a radical shake-up of posts. It might also signal disapproval of the Scottish Budget which Ms Robison delivered only in December. Ousting her would therefore cast doubt on its validity and open the party to more criticism.
Don’t be surprised, however, if Ms Forbes snatches Ms Robison’s role as Deputy First Minister. She could be handed a new post of Housing Secretary to spearhead a campaign that has risen up the agenda.
Alternatively, she may be made minister without portfolio with responsibility for bringing about the cohesion in government policy-making that Mr Swinney spoke about. There is a possibility she could provide maternity cover for Wellbeing Economy and Net Zero Secrertary Mairi McAllan, an important role in government that needs a senior stand-in.
As for policy, he promises economic growth “but not for its own sake”, a phrase we’ve heard before and means business will be used as a cash cow for financing public services. That is acceptable, as long as we do not get public services for their own sake. He needs to start thinking about the something-for-nothing-culture which is a deadweight on the country.
Mr Swinney has a long relationship with the business community so he should not need to be reminded of the need to release business from burdensome costs and regulations.
Talk of promoting housing to a full Cabinet post would be a smart move, appeasing the many critics of government policy. In a stroke, Mr Swinney could see unity in action by satisfying the needs of tenants’s rights groups, housebuilders and overseas investors.
Those who witnessed the mauling that housing minster Paul McLennan received at last month’s Scottish Property Federation conference were left in no doubt about the strength of feeling in the sector, though to be fair, much of their anger is really aimed at the Green party for its damaging rent controls and costly environmental measures.
That brings us to the future of the Greens. Despite their voting down Labour’s opportunistic confidence vote in the government, there is little chance of a return to ministerial office for Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater who must live with the memory, not only of rent controls, but of the failed deposit return scheme and marine protection.
That said, Mr Swinney will run a minority administration and in a spirit of greater consensus and less hostility in the chamber, he wants to reach out to all parties in order that the government can function. In that respect, it will spread power rather than diminish it.
He is calling for policies that “take the public with them”, particularly on achieving net zero. In that case, he needs to set goals that reflect the reality of business and household budgets. Imposing change that weakens the financial viability of companies and puts jobs at risk is not the way to achieve economic growth.
Already, however, his insistence on ploughing on with the independence campaign could prove his Achilles Heel, the issue that will divide rather than unite.
He is the latest to claim that he will be the First Minister to deliver it. He has not said how. In fact, he has not said how in all his years in the parliament. He is the independence continuity minister who risks over-promising on a policy he has no clear plan for delivering.
With the polls showing Labour in the ascendancy, failure to persuade the electorate that he has the formula to make it work could put the SNP’s core proposition beyond reach for a generation.
Terry Murden was Scotland editor and Business Editor at The Sunday Times, Business Editor at The Scotsman, and Business and City Editor at Scotland on Sunday. He is now Editor of Daily Business
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