The rout of the Scottish National Party has left leader John Swinney with questions over its future, says TERRY MURDEN
As we awaited the arrival of John Swinney on the fourth floor of the Port of Leith Distillery it would have been no surprise if the SNP leader had stopped for a restorative dram before giving his verdict on the General Election. When he did step up to the lectern to address the media he freely admitted it had been an “incredibly tough night” for his party.
Unlike Rishi Sunak, who had earlier announced his resignation as Tory leader wearing the familiar look of a boxer who’d been pummelled for 15 rounds, Swinney betrayed no physical sense of defeat and he was certainly in no mood for quitting.
Just eight weeks into the job, he spoke with what may have appeared misplaced confidence that his time will come and that, despite also suffering a serious thumping, all is not lost for the SNP. His sceptical audience thought otherwise, piling on questions about where exactly he and his party go from here.
After anticipating and dealing with the resignation question, he accepted with some humility that the result was worse than he had expected and that the party had a lot of work to do. It would listen and learn, he said. He accepted the blame for the poor showing – “which is what leaders do” – and said it was his job to deal with it, but he gave few answers as to how he would put right what has gone so spectacularly wrong.
Some of his critics have given him the benefit of the doubt, given that he has been leader for such a short time. However, if this is not as an excuse for failure, then it is being used as a get-out clause. This explanation might wash in the case of an outsider brought in at short notice to turnaround a struggling company. In Swinney’s case he’s been part of the SNP fabric all his adult life and a key figure in the party of government for 17 years. Just because he’s a leadership new boy doesn’t mean his fingerprints are not all over the dying body.
He’s now turning his attention to a new era of rapprochement with Westminster. One of his first moves is to improve on the “appalling” relationship between Holyrood and the Tory government since Boris Johnson arrived at Number Ten. Swinney is hoping Sir Keir Starmer will prove to be a more collaborative “partner” and that they can work together to improve the lives of Scots.
This also presents Swinney with a dilemma. Get too close and cosy with Sir Keir and Westminster and he will be accused of softening the SNP’s commitment to independence. Worse still, while businesses in particular demand the two governments co-operate, such an outcome actually weakens the case for independence.
Put simply, nothing drives up support for splitting Scotland from the UK more than a rotten government in Westminster that (allegedly) ignores, insults and otherwise hinders Scotland’s progress. Imagine the fury among diehard nationalists if Swinney is seen sharing smiles alongside the leader of the party that just dished up a Germany-style humiliation.
Swinney refused to say what his priorities will be when he meets Sir Keir, though independence is unlikely to be among them. The Labour leader has ruled out a referendum or any other process for separation and the SNP’s loss of seats means Swinney would be stretching credibility by claiming he still has a mandate.
Instead, he’s likely to focus on issues around Brexit and public services. Sir Keir has ruled out re-entry to the EU “in my lifetime”, so that’s also off the table. That leaves Swinney to seek extra help on things like extra funding for the health service, more powers over immigration and employment, and amendments to the Internal Markets Act that he says “erodes the powers of the Scottish government”. Sir Keir, though, wants to give more powers to the Scotland Office, so this looks like being a long conversation.
Labour is keen to boost the economy through reform of business rates and planning, both of which are devolved, thus creating a few pinch points if Swinney insists Scotland should continue to go its own way rather than fall into line with UK policy which business would prefer. There are other plans, such as a wealth fund and beefed up investment bank, which could also cut across the Scottish Government’s own state-owned bank and create further muddle.
That’s before consideration of issues such as income and property tax which are varied in Scotland and present business, employees and householders with further confusion. If Labour demands greater simplification and efficiency to improve the performance of the economy and public services it might mean forcing Swinney’s government to accept more policies and strategies that currently do the opposite.
Ultimately, the rout suffered by the SNP has weakened Swinney’s bargaining powers, and with two of the party’s core demands – independence and a return to the European Union – now off the table for the foreseeable future, he now has to resolve the SNP’s purpose. What exactly does it now stand for?
Terry Murden was Scotland editor and Business Editor at The Sunday Times, Business Editor at The Scotsman, and Business and City Editor at Scotland on Sunday. He is now Editor of Daily Business
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