The declinists, or gloom-mongers, risk undermining attempts to build new industries, writes TOM GILLINGHAM
A good moan can be like a comfort blanket in difficult times but, if it becomes too familiar, its weight can become increasingly hard to shake off. To put a word to the sense of doom that often underpins a moan, declinism is a feeling harboured about the overall state of a country, society, or institution, with the view that it is getting worse.
It’s all too easy to lapse into this worldview. Here’s a declinist take on my recent trip north for a conference on green skills: Travelling to Aberdeen on the (delayed) train reinforced the sense that we are squatting in the last remnants of our forebears’ ambition. The railway itself and the monuments to steam at either end are Victorian, the drained loch that allows east/west passage through Edinburgh is Georgian, the rusting rig skeletons in yards along the east coast – Elizabethan.
A bit much, perhaps, but pessimism can feel like our national pastime.
So, here’s another take. It was startling to be in a room, populated by those at the forefront of the energy transition in Scotland, where optimism and a sense of being on the cusp of a new jobs revolution were recurring themes of the discussion.
There are challenges, of course, but there are also myriad opportunities, which seem to be systemically under-communicated. And this has far-reaching real-world consequences for Scotland’s ability to actually navigate, let alone lead, the green transition.
There was an anecdote shared about power electronics graduates – a heavily in-demand skillset in the renewables industry – from a leading Scottish university being ‘hoovered up’ by the bright lights of Formula E. The motorsport people simply told a better story than their domestic renewables counterparts, and crucially were able to paint a positive, aspirational picture.
If all graduates, or anyone for that matter, are fed on a diet of declinism, is it any wonder they find it hard to believe there are opportunities or even life-long careers worthy of attention right here?
Our domestic industry cannot and should not try match the scale or boosterism inherent in US business culture, or the funhouse mirror effect of the NEOM projects in Saudi Arabia, but we can do more highlight and – however unnatural it feels – celebrate the huge opportunity on our doorstep. Some of the most complex, challenging and genuinely world-changing projects can happen here.
According to PwC, 400,000 people will be needed by 2050 to drive the energy transition in this country. This includes 260,000 new roles and 140,000 to replace those who leave.
On its own, this is an almost unfathomable number, but in practical terms it means a glut of stimulating and well-paying jobs that can allow people to stay near to home and enjoy the best of what Scotland has to offer.
We must also find a constructive way to talk about the oil and gas elephant in the room. We are on a clear trajectory away from fossil fuels, but the negative narrative around that industry is having a knock-on effect on attracting the skills that will be vital for Scotland’s renewable-driven future.
It should be possible to acknowledge the role of oil and gas extraction in climate change, whilst also respecting the Scottish engineering prowess that defined a global industry, especially in terms of safety culture in the immediate aftermath of the Piper Alpha disaster.
Losing these skills and the associated problem-solving culture is a slow-motion tragedy. But, if a whole sector is repeatedly told they’re not welcome, it shouldn’t be a surprise if they leave, find it harder to retrain or are more reticent to share transferrable skills.
Scotland’s renewable advantages and our oil and gas hinterland give us an enviable head start, but converting on this is still not guaranteed. New optimism and ingenuity are needed, so there is a responsibility to nurture it and to communicate better.
Just as oil and gas was a global industry, this energy revolution is too. No one is underplaying the challenges, but if we keep clutching at the declinist comfort blanket, so many opportunities might slip away.
Tom Gillingham is a partner at Charlotte Street Partners
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