The SNP leader is using the election campaign to position himself as a statesman, says TERRY MURDEN
Buoyed by favourable opinion polls, John Swinney is managing to wrongfoot his election rivals with some canny campaign tactics that may prove the old warhorse has plenty of fuel in the tank. Whether he’s saving Africa, supporting Palestine or meeting President Trump in the White House, he’s backing up his lobbying for independence by setting himself up as a statesman, positioning himself among other world leaders to talk about global affairs.
To that end, his predecessors had a measure of success, notably Nicola Sturgeon’s presence at the COP climate talks, but that was in Glasgow where her attendance would be expected, and apart from the inevitable selfies, there was no obvious gain for the SNP or its independent nation ambitions.
Mr Swinney is now enlisting the support of Plaid Cymru in a pincer movement aimed at forcing Labour back into its English stronghold. Together – and to the tune of “Who do you think you are kidding, Mr Farage?” – they are also raising a combined voice against Reform UK’s battallions.
This has opened up a new front in the election campaign, with few yet to understand what it will achieve. However, it has prompted the Scottish LibDems to forge their own Celtic alliance with the Welsh LibDems in defence of the union.
Mr Swinney leads his troops into battle after an annual conference which, despite being held in Aberdeen, barely mentioned oil and gas. It also avoided major declarations on health, education or any other policy for which his government has responsibility. Instead there were at least four set-piece speeches on independence.
The big unanswered questions for Mr Swinney are just exactly how he hopes to achieve independence and what an independent nation would really look like. In his recent paper delivered at the National Portrait Gallery in Edinburgh he painted a picture that included a central bank and a Scottish currency, though Scotland would continue to use sterling until the country was ready to make the switch. In the meantime, he said, the Bank of England would remain the lender of last resort, able to bail out Scotland in the event of a financial crisis.
This sent economists into a frenzy, warning that the Bank of England’s priority would be to protect what remained of the UK; that a Scottish currency would be weaker than sterling and its deficit would force it into sharp tax rises and spending cuts.
No surprise, therefore, that Deputy First Minister Kate Forbes, has been mimicking Basil Fawlty by telling SNP members “not to mention the currency”. Mr Swinney mentioned it once, but he didn’t really get away with it.
Perhaps they should not be so shy about launching a Scottish currency. After all, Slovakia launched the koruna just a month after independence, Slovenia the tolar just three months on from the big day, and North Macedonia took just seven months to introduce the denar.
That sort of data drives the hardliners within his party to demand ministers ‘just get on with it’ and make it happen. The marches continue and the social media pressure gets harder to resist quick action.
The First Minister is keen to shift the focus away from sentimental flag-waving to more practical solutions to achieving his goals, and says he has a plan. It’s just that he’s not yet revealed what it is.
In the meantime, he’s happy to play the small nation leader who dreams of bigger things. Hence, his intervention on US whisky tariffs, raising the issue twice with Donald Trump, including his unprecedented meeting in the Oval Office, much to the ire of Labour’s Scotland Secretary Douglas Alexander who insists Mr Swinney is trying to take credit away from UK Government negotiators.
The First Minister has now engaged in a round of talks on whisky and energy at Bute House with the US ambassador Warren A Stephens who was invited to join him at Murrayfield for the Scotland-USA rugby international. This came 24 hours after Mr Alexander held his own discussions with the embassy official, also to talk about whisky as well as energy and defence.
Indications are that the SNP is softening its opposition to oil and gas exploration, and on defence, both of which provide national security. While its energy policy will continue to favour renewables, so does Labour’s. Mr Swinney knows an independent nation needs the capability to defend itself and that Scotland has the skills to build its own weapons. On both fronts, a narrowing of the gulf between the SNP and Labour is surely inevitable.
In the meantime, a potentially positive outcome of the oneupmanship with Mr Alexander is that it has put whisky on the domestic agenda. After the trade deal in India and amid this high profile posturing, it would be embarrassing for the Scotland Secretary if the Chancellor raised duty on whisky in her Budget.
Terry Murden held senior positions at The Sunday Times, The Scotsman, Scotland on Sunday and The Northern Echo and is now editor of Daily Business
Leave a Reply