A survey says the SNP is favoured over Labour to grow and invest in the economy, but is that a fair assessment, asks TERRY MURDEN
It could have been a difficult lunch for John Swinney as he prepared to hear the head of the CBI address a roomful of business leaders in Edinburgh. There were plenty of targets to aim at, not least high income taxes for top earners, punitive business rates for big retailers, a lack of investment in infrastructure, and slow progress in skills development.
As it turned out, the group’s chief executive Rain Newton-Smith was unable to travel north because of the fire at Heathrow. Her planned speech was delivered, more or less, by chief strategy officer Tracy Black, but the focus was much less on any shortcomings at Holyrood and more on the chaos being created by the Labour government at Westminster.
It’s perhaps no surprise, then, that a survey this weekend suggests the Scottish business community is looking more favourably on the SNP than Labour. Of 500 respondents, 29% believe the SNP has the best policies to support growth and investment, a slight dip of one percentage point from last year. Scottish Labour saw its support drop from 31% to 24% over the same period.
The problem with this is that comparing Labour and the SNP on business and the economy is like asking who is best at developing Scottish football: FIFA or the Scottish FA? They may be in the same game, but they have different jurisdictions and ability to influence change.
I haven’t seen the questions posed by 56 Degrees North and the Diffley Partnership but it doesn’t take a research analyst to work out that the answers would be swayed by Labour’s decisions on National Insurance and the living wage, as well as the Employment Rights Bill currently going through parliament, none of which come within the remit of the SNP, and nor would they be the responsibility of Scottish Labour.
There has also been considerable scepticism and impatience around GB Energy, Labour’s renewables investment vehicle, which is also outwith the responsibility of Holyrood, as are a whole range of economic and fiscal powers over interest rates, currency, corporation tax and so on that colours any direct comparison between Scottish Labour and the SNP.
It’s worth noting that this latest poll, conducted between 24 February and 11 March, has Reform UK gaining support among Scottish firms, with 9% considering it the best party for growth and investment. That’s without having any specific policies for Scotland.
So what conclusions can we draw from this poll?
Firstly, the SNP appears to have got off lightly. The respondents could not have included many of those who regularly take to social media to express outrage at SNP bungling over the ferries, or refusal to match the UK government’s business rates relief for leisure and retail businesses. There have been accusations that, despite the formation of advisory groups, the party still doesn’t listen and take heed of business priorities. Proposals for new tax bands, the debacle over the deposit return scheme, and an anti-oil and gas agenda, offer more ammunition for the party’s critics
Those issues aside, the SNP has earned a few brownie points with headline initiatives that have usefully deployed the few powers at the Scottish government’s disposal. Mr Swinney told guests at the CBI lunch that the SNP-inspired Scottish National Investment Bank was one of the best developments to emerge in recent years, though he did not mention that its budget has been cut, and questions have been asked about whether its focus should be more on building basic infrastructure rather than injecting funds into businesses that meet its “sustainability” agenda.
Other plus points include the offshore wind forum that drew an audience of investors on Monday and the techscalers that are stimulating early stage companies. Deservedly, they are attracting attention from other parts of the UK and overseas.
However, any support garnered from Scottish business is less about what the SNP has achieved and more about the mistakes Labour is making at Westminster which, in turn is tarnishing Scottish Labour.
Anas Sarwar’s tartan battalion has been short of ideas of its own. It produced a paper on a digital strategy, though it won’t differ markedly from what is already on offer from the SNP. It promises to invest in defence and nuclear energy, but these are in the gift of Sir Keir’s Cabinet, not the government in Edinburgh. Scottish Labour argues that both would help stimulate Scottish manufacturing.
Mr Sarwar has failed so far to persuade London to back a carbon capture scheme for Scotland, and the jury is out on whether the £200m promised for Grangemouth will materialise. It will only be released as private money comes forward and, in any case, the National Wealth Fund may have the final say on whether it is released at all.
What Scottish Labour really needs is a Westminster Cabinet producing policies that will help rather than hinder its prospects of governing at Holyrood. One that takes a greater interest in small firms rather than just talking to institutions in the City of London, and that understands what it’s like to run a business with constantly rising costs.
Wetherspoons has said that each of its pubs faces additional costs of £1,500 per week because of Rachel Reeves’ budget. It’s that sort of message that undermines Anas Sarwar as much as anything that John Swinney’s ministers throw at him.
Terry Murden was Editor and Business Editor at The Sunday Times Scotland, Business Editor at The Scotsman, and Business and City Editor at Scotland on Sunday. He is now Editor of Daily Business.
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